1. APRIL MARKETS
2. ONE Stock/ONE Stock Market
3. Computer Stocks
4. Quotes
5. On the Web
6. Letters
APRIL: Yellow Alert MAY: Red Alert
After April 15, the fresh IRA money is gone. This makes for a
seasonal Spring drop. Coupled with the May planetary lineup, this
is THE month to run for cover. This is NOT the time to chase winners,
but to bottom fish. We will not be doing many fresh buys for the next 45
days unless stocks on our watch list that are dumped by panicking investors.
In that case, we are prepared to jump in with both hands buying.
So far two of the market marker days are suggesting a tug of war for the month- Ideal for traders, frustrating for investors. Therefore traders should tighten up stops. Watch GE for general market conditions. After the next two weeks, it may be too late to cash out, so either do it now or just sit back and be a "long term investor."
KEY DATES: April 14
DJIA:
11,000 Ceiling establishing
NASDAQ Towards a Retest of 3650
2. Last year we upgraded Canada to an outperform vs. the US. When the TSE surpassed 10,000, it out performed, being up over 54% vs 11% for the DJIA in the same time period.
Nortel is worth 20% of the TSE, Nokia over 50% of the Finnish market. Soon financial astrology work will be easier as one may only have to look at 2 or 3 stocks per stock market. I am of course greatly looking forward to the upcoming merger of GE and MicroCisco, the acquisition entity of Cisco and Microsoft. This newly combined entity could be allowed under Bush's lax anti-trust regulation. And if it can be done, Wall Street will do it.
The stock exchanges in Brussels, Amsterdam and Paris will be merged into a single exchange called Euronext and will begin operations in September. This will be Europe's second biggest in size after the London Stock Exchange, and depending on its new horoscope, we may or may not revise our view of Dutch Stocks and Holland as our favorite 2001-2002 Stock Market.
3. Given recent divergences between NYSE and NASDAQ we are now offering technical opinions on Nasdaq to our Gold and Premium subscribers. Should this disconnect last well past May (not our view), we will do the necessary astrological research and offer separate Nasdaq timing as well.
We continue to avoid traditional computer companies that are primarily
equipment manufacturers since hardware is becoming more and more commodified.
Increasingly competition will be brutal, especially as the consumer electronics
companies such as Sony continue to make inroads. The exceptions are
those like IBM that derive substantial revenue from software and services,
the two subsectors we continue to like. Unfortunately valuations
are sky high. Despite soaring usage in the Internet, we prefer to
avoid new purchases in this subsector as well until there is some value
semblance. Once Saturn squares Uranus this May, the entire picture changes
as technology (Uranus) is challenged (Square) by Reality (Saturn).
WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK subscribers please see Computer
Stocks for current investment views.
4. "Our strongly held impression is that an upturn in inflation, gradual
at first, but real and widespread, is actually taking place but not being
fully recognized by the markets."
Russ Sheldon, Chief Economist MoneyWatch
"...I think we're nearing the time, that's my guess. And it will be
big. It's similar to emerging markets. Some stocks will be 90 percent or
50 percent down."
Mark Mobius Templeton Emerging Markets Group
"The run-up in debt does not look that troubling right now,"
Mark Vitner, economist First Union Capital Markets.
HW: Ok then, how about next week? or next month?
5. READER: Congrats on the great call Henry!
Question: I understand that there is a conjunction of the planets on
Thursday that is similar to the Harmonic Convergence that occurred on 8/25/87
at the exact top, and similar to what occurred in 1962 a few months before
the Crash of 1962 (was that US Steel or the Cuban missile crisis?).
Is this something significant in your work in the current environment,
or are there other planetary alignments/aspects that you see to be of major
consequence?
HW: I believe you are referring to May 3rd 7 planet line up in
Taurus at the beginning of which the Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
and Saturn are ALL in Taurus which is the sign of the New York and Tokyo
stock exchanges. This is the first of several BIG planetary alignments
in May.
READER: Are you still sticking to your target of 7000 for the Dow by
May 2000? WHEN will the 4000 point drop occur? Time's running out!
HW: I am a fixed sign, so why change? 1) It is more or less "fair value"
and besides, should be in the right direction. I just hope I chose the
right index and it is not just Nasdaq that will continue to fall down.
Q: You mentioned that a primary purpose of stops was for money management.
Do you use certain percentages of your trading capital or a dollar amount?
Or is it simply the point on a chart that sets the stop regardless of trading
gains or losses?
A. I most often use the classic 3/1 profit target. In an
extremely high probability trade, it can be 2/1 or less. If we do not like
the stop at that price point, i.e., it does not invalidate the trade according
to our system, then we do not enter the trade. All trades involve
a certain percentage of trading capital. If a short term trade, we use
a dollar amount, while if intermediate term a percentage of trading capital.
READER: I was quickly scanning your page and noticed a few errors regarding
the change from the VSE to Canadian Venture Board. IHI is on the CDNX -
not CDVE or CVE as indicated on your web site. Small errors, but I thought
I would
mention them. Have a Rainy Day - whether you like it or not......:)
HW: OK will change. We like to correct our errors and misteaks.
READER: IHI-my personal belief was with the announcement regarding the
robotics that the share price would go to USD 2.00. Do you think now it
is a case that the share price wont really increase dramatically until
they actually announce they are going into production-it certainly shows
up the insanity of the market that people would rather be in stocks with
no earnings and based around hype rather than a solid concept as IHI with
a magnificent future with real earnings. One week could you for WSNW readers
repeat your analysis you gave last year of where you saw the share price
going on the fundamental analysis of the output of the factories?
HW: It is posted at IHI. After May's Jupiter/Saturn I believe
stocks such as IHI will get more of the recognition they deserve.
READER: I know this is somewhat late but I wanted to ask if it is possible
to allow me the discount offer of 50% you proposed at the start of the
year.
HW: I hesitate, as Gold subscriptions are a trading channel. The first
rule is to have sufficient money to trade; otherwise you are always at
a disadvantage. Why don't you try this channel for 3 months $300
and and see if it is helpful.
READER: Please let me know your opinion as to how long a correction
will last. I simply cannot sell at a loss due to my finances. Don't you
think its better to ride through down trends? I realize that Uranus
is conjunct the Sun of NASDAQ right now, but what about later?
HW: I cannot advise you here. I think it is better to sell some
at a loss, then hold them through potentially much bigger corrections.
However, this is a choice YOU must make. I believe in holding some
stock over down trends, but selling others.
READER: Time to Buy into Gold now! It will start to rally from these
levels - [ 276].
HW: I would agree it is a good risk/reward trade.
READER: What is your current view of AFTI & CELN; Buy, Sell, Hold?
HW: AFTI is disappointing in that it did not hold $4. We already
own, so are not buying, but holding unless there is fresh good news.
CELN, ditto with $6. We continue to believe both will make our targets
after May corrections.
READER: I'd like to attend the conference in May. Is there a registration
form at this web site?
HW: YES. MAY 18
CONFERENCE.
READER: If one is holding all good, solid companies for stock (mostly
tech and communications) and it is about 35% of the entire portfolio, what
about just sitting with it through May since money is not really needed
right now and a cash reserve is in hand? Wont good solid companies weather
the storms? They seem to.
HW: I don't consider most techs and communication company solidly VALUED.
The market will decide if it agrees. If you were my client, I would
probably reduce your exposure somewhat and that way whatever happens, you
are covered.
READER: Do you recommend buying more IHITF at the 200-day moving average
about $0.80... or do you think it might drop further because of the NASDAQ
melt down? Same question about AFTI which I have a loss on now, but could
buy more at about $1. What do you think?
HW: If you can get IHITF I would buy it. However, I am not sure it
will go lower and I hope it will not.
As to AFTI, even though I bought at 2.25 and 4 and 3, I would consider
personally another buy more at $1 if it gets there. Fortunately,
we have lots of cash from other sales, as our AFTI buys were far from good
trading. It remains to be seen if it will be the good intermediate
term speculative investment we intended.
READER: Do u have a point where u think good to be long Nasdaq? 3800
is looking pretty good.
I would prefer between 2500 to 3000.
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