1. APRIL ASTRODATES
2. APRIL MARKETS
3. QUOTES
4. WEBS
5. LETTERS
1. April 4 New Moon 2:12 PM
April 18 Full Moon 1:41 PM
April 19 Sun enters Taurus 2:40 PM
May 13 Saturn Square Uranus
May 28 Jupiter Conjunct Saturn
2. These days I just keep asking myself if I have too much
stock and not enough cash. Even the great bull Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman
Sachs cut her stock allocation to 85 percent from 95 percent. Cash was
raised to 15 percent from 5 percent.
If in doubt, reduce stock holdings.
How long will foreigners lend US money to finance the massive US trade
deficit?
Increasingly, there is a danger of a weaker dollar resulting in a flight
from US financial markets resulting in inflationary pressures and higher
interest rates.
Corporate insider sales reflect another sign of a market top.
"At market tops insiders and the smart money distribute shares to the
last group of buyers who are the least market savvy historically" according
to Charles Biderman, Trimtabs.com
For the past couple of years, corporate insider sales were under 3
billion a month. It quadrupled to over 12 billion since November and currently
is more than 22 billion!!! At the same time, individuals are diving into
the market to the tune of 35 and 40 billion respectively in January and
February.
My advice is to have lots of cash as the public may dump good stocks
as well as bad ones. Yet another fortune could be made in short order thereafter.
KEY DATES:
April 4, 14
WORLDS MARKETS: April: Yellow Alert: May Red Alert
3. "It is serious....If anybody thinks (the drop) doesn't effect
the investors' psyche, they're wrong. The decline itself can be demoralizing
and can invite more selling.''
Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer First Albany Corp
HW: It has been serious since the July eclipse, but bad news travels
slow these days!
"Mutual investors generally vote with their feet and what I would fear
is that they will commit the cardinal sin of selling when it's low."
Louis Harvey, president, Dalbar financial research firm.
HW: No worse a sin than buying stocks when they are sky high.
"The psychology has changed in the Nasdaq. Anytime there was a dip it
was seen as a buying opportunity. Now it seems to be an opportunity to
take profits."
Tony Dwyer Kirlin Holdings.
"I'd hate to be a futures trader if they only increase by 1.7 million
barrels a day with a review in June, as you're left guessing what will
happen then.''
Mehdi Varzi, director of oil and gas research for Dresdner Kleinwort
Benson
HW: Markets with the most uncertainty are the very best futures market.
Just be sure to have your horoscope charts placed by your trading screen
to reduce your personal uncertainty!
"We believe it is time to call a designed drive and go home. Sell 50%
of all your aggressive, speculative holdings-which include virtually every
convention high-tech and Internet leader. Eliminate margin and raise some
cash.
Otis Bradley Gilford Securities
HW: Amen.
4. In comparison with http://www.fiendbear.com/, I am a raging bull.
5. It now appears that NASDAQ completed wave 5 of 5 of V at 5132.5 March
10, just 5.5 points or. 9% under our target. It is thus now likely that
wave 1 will take NASDAQ down to 3587 by the third week in June.
HW: Seems right to me, although perhaps a bit conservative in your
price targets.
READER: [Your one-sided attitude toward stocks is detrimental… This
applies to bulls and bears. It seems that you are raising cash only in
the bear stock markets… or whatever is against the stock market (crude).
HW: There are many styles of trading and investing. These days
I prefer to trade picking turn dates as there are few secular trends. I
feel calculating risk/reward and probability gives me more than satisfactory
results. It is not two sided, but then I never wanted to be two faced
either.
READER: IHI has kept a low profile for very long time. With the robotics
finally on order, the end of the beginning is in sight. Those of
us who have been with Roger for a long time know of IHI's staggering potential,
but our numbers are small. What are the company's plans to promote
the stock?
HW: I don't care about promotion AT ALL. I care about company progress
which IS happening. The stock market will eventually realize what
IHI is doing and its stock will naturally zoom up, as long as the fundamentals
keep improving.
READER: what is your outlook for palladium when rates go up. Is there
any safety in metals? And what about fuel cells?
HW: I like gold, don't particularly like silver except for short term
bottom fishing and I don't track palladium. Fuel cells are a very hot area
like biotechnology. Whenever (rarely these days) I find a good company
at a good price, I am willing to buy in either sector.
READER: What's up with the class action on LDW? Don't know what
it's about, but it probably means it will take a while before it heads
up. I bought at $3.50 and again at $2.25. My question would
be -- buy, hold or sell at this point?
HW: It always depends on WHY you buy the stock, e.g. for a trade and/or
an investment; what period of time, e.g. short term, intermediate term
or long term, and what else is in your portfolio. We bought again at 1
1/8. However, given the crazy state of the markets, I would probably hold
in your case without knowing all the details.
READER: I think you recommended we buy Laidlaw -- well I did and it
is being sued this morning or something and seems to be on the way down.
I was just wondering. When you recommend a stock -- do you do a chart
for it or just use normal financial reasoning. If you do a chart for the
stock -- wouldn't it show something as large as being sued
HW: Being sued is no big deal (in my opinion) in the markets unless
there is merit to the case. We bought Laidlaw as a fallen angel.
It takes time for the market perception to be turned around. We sometimes
do a chart, and sometimes normal financial reasoning, depending on the
situation. Technically it looks to me like the stock has hit bottom and
is on the way back up.
READER: I am So confused about your advice, should I sell things I hold
such as gern, 4 (at a loss) and wait for the market to go down? But then,
will I know what to buy - How will I know when to buy -- will you tell
me -- or is it just your one week bulletin that I take my cues from?
HW: In our newsletter, we cannot tell you when exactly to buy and sell.
That is the role of a financial advisor or money manager. We can
tell you basic market trends and which markets outperform, and what stocks
we like and expect to outperform according to various risk/reward scenarios.
Our basic advice remains caution and liquidity, but certainly NOT panic.
READER: Abby Cohen DOES seem to have an influence.
HW: YES.
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