1. MARKETS
2. VENTURE CAPITAL RISKS
3. ACADEMIC QUOTES
4. GOLD IS GOOD
5. NYC CONFERENCE
6. LETTERS
IS YOUR PORTFOLIO READY FOR MAY 2000?
Despite "no inflation", it seems the world is slowly waking up.
Last week, we witnessed a failed rally following a DJIA correction [10%
down from January 14]. Before March we are set to test 10,000, the first
REAL investor fear point. Last week, we also saw the first signs
of Oil topping, and we recommended selling energy or swapping it for precious
metals. OPEC said they wanted to see OIL $28-$30, and that is what
is happening. Anyone who believes the government figures of virtually
NO inflation, should continue to buy and hold. I strongly recommend
every one else, the nonbelievers, or rational free thinkers continue raising
cash, being defensive or using portfolio hedging.
No, it's not different this time. A Columbia university business
school student informed me last week that we were in a new economy paradigm.
I reminded her of investing in electric lighting companies in the 1880's,
radio companies in the 1920's, computer companies in the 1960's.
Still she insisted investing in Internet companies in the 00's was different.
I believe this is a fatal mistake. While most Internet companies will never
make money, but go bankrupt, the same song is being sung. Even Internet
hacking didn't do it, but Saturn/Uranus and Jupiter/Saturn will!
Do you really believe you can be the last one out the door and not
get trampled? Good luck.
KEY DATES: February 22
DJIA:
9688 to 10444
NASDAQ: Countdown to disaster
2. One short term alternative to investor constipation i.e., REFUSING to sell your stocks, is to buy high risk/high reward small caps stocks for as long as the good times last. If you choose this path, we advise using only a small portion of your portfolio 5-20% of your capital, depending on your tolerance for risk. This way you should not be wiped out by a spectacular Nasdaq melt down, if and when it should occur.
As with venture capital situations, you hope some investments will have spectacular returns, even if the majority turn out to be worthless. You must periodically take profits. Last century, we used to sell at least equal to our initial investment after a stock doubled or tripled. These days, we often wait until 500% or 1000%. However, no matter what the number, keep your initial speculative capital (money you can easily afford to lose without materially affecting your life style) intact.
With astrology it is our experience there are no good or bad markets, only good and bad times to buy and sell. Just like in real estate, investors do the absolute worst deals in so-called good markets cf dot.com mania. Playing momentum is not as advisable post-Jupiter/Saturn (May 2000), as it was pre-Jupiter/Saturn. I prefer to INVEST in speculative emerging growth companies that have a realistic chance of business success. These days, we naturally are most concentrated on our AFUND Companies. One major reason for this is the Peter Lynch principle: invest in what you know and like. You will avoid a lot of troubles if you follow this fundamental rule: Don't invest in anything that you don't understand. Remember, do your homework and don't be greedy. Ignore the old market saw at your own peril: Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered.
3. KISS IT GOODBYE: "When you set up your speculative account, you should
assume this is lost money. Psychologically get the reference point
down to zero. If you have great hopes for your speculative account and
you are very loss averse, it can be a lethal combination because if you
lose, you'll dip into the money you set aside for other goals in an attempt
to get even.
Hersh Shefrin professor Santa Clara University. Getting Going by Jonathan
Clements WSJ Jan. 25.
"Occasionally, groups of stocks associated with new technologies get
caught in a speculative bubble, and it appears that the sky is the limit.
But in each case, the laws of financial gravity prevail and market prices
eventually correct.''
Burton G. Malkiel Princeton University professor
4. More reasons to buy gold by John Hathaway at Apocalypse No.
5. Our 8th annual Astrology and Stock Market Seminar held May 18, 2000 at the Hotel Intercontinental in NYC. To avoid a conflict with the 25th anniversary Atlanta congress of the MTA, it will be held on one evening year with yours truly Henry Weingarten and Rebecca Nolan, editor of Financial Astrology. May is a beautiful time to visit NYC and this event should prove nourishing to both your appetite for food and drink as well as stellar stock market information. Come join us.
6. READER: Do you think that MO $18, LU $53 and DELL $36 are buys
at current prices, or should we wait a little longer ( after May). Your
thoughts please.
HW: If you don't mind the smoke, MO with its 10% yield is a buy. Dell
and Lucent are much too expensive to my view and I would much rather wait
for Nasdaq below 3000 before I would even consider any such buying.
QUESTION: Why oil and oil stocks are going in radically different directions
and which one will correct to the other?
HW: 1. According to Reuters: Analysts said oil company equities are
still far below what they would value them at given the sector's positive
operating conditions because investors don't believe high oil prices are
here to stay.
2. Oil stocks are STOCKS, and stocks are declining.
After the third pass of Jupiter square Neptune in March, Oil and Oil
stocks should reflect prices normally.
READER: What would be a good price to buy DISNEY? I never know what
you mean overpriced. Also,do you think German telecoms are a safer bet
as you did mention investing in Europe. Are you saying this from an astrologers
viewpoint?
HW: Check the business appraisal valuation at Morningstar.com.
Disney's value is about 14! However, I would feel comfortable buying Disney
at a price of 22 or better. German companies are catching the American
stock market disease. I prefer Danish (Teledansk) and Dutch Telecoms
(KPN) long term but ONLY after a REAL correction. I am saying this
from my usual cosmic viewpoint (astrology and common sense and/or fundamental
and technical pricing)
READER: I need to know when my subscription is up, or will I be automatically
notified? Do not want it to lapse by mistake.
HW: You will be notified automatically, but if it slips through the
cracks and you don't receive Wall Street, Next Week one week, email us.
READER: WAMX as you know hit 10.25 and has since backed off. Will it
see 10 again soon, or should I cover here at 8+ ?
HW: After such a rapid 300% price rise, it was natural to see a pull
back on profit taking. We believe Wamex could be a grand slam home run.
Now that it has held $8 support, it will probably retest 10 shortly. As
a trader, I wouldn't consider any profit taking before 12. Thereafter,
I would use a 1-2 point trailing stop. If a long term investor, I
would just follow the company news and see if they make it to 30.
READER: I just finished a technical analysis of DOW JONES (DJIA) monthly
pattern over the past few years with classic wave theory. Elliot Wave Theory
(popularized by Robert Prechter) suggests that 'Bear Cycle' can start anytime
with DJIA. The bear cycle will persist for a couple of years. This is not
good for the markets worldwide! One should reduce the exposure to equities
on both DJIA and Nasdaq. I would put my money in GOLD. The US or British
Govt. Bonds offer too little return - 5% per annum.... Same view I also
hold on Crude Oil. On a decline [USD 25-27 levels], one should enter the
Oil futures market.
HW: Actually many stocks are already in a bear market. However,
we agree for the need to reduce exposure to most equities ASAP. Gold
is certainly good. Oil stocks I prefer to oil as we see a range of
26.50 to 30.50.
READER: I noticed that Saturn will cross DCHT's ascendant in May. At
the same time they are trying hard to keep the price above 6 to obtain
a NASDAQ listing. Rumors are afoot about an additional stock issue. With
the energy show in late February, there should be a "pumping" to precede
a March/May dumping. Is it short-term ominous that they can't even do that?
My personal entry was 6... If it is going back to 2 or 3.... BTW, Halemann's
chart also effected by the May stellium...
HW: No comment.
READER: The link to Wamex when you go it offers a choice of homepage
or trading demo- both can't be accessed without a user name and password.
Why is this? I thought they would have a home page about the company like
your other clients? Does their management impress you as much as
Stox.com? I hope they are successful because it would give users an opportunity
to trade in a modern professional reliable system which no online brokerage
wise has really yet achieved.
HW: Their home page is being designed and should be up in about two
weeks. I wanted to post the astrological data. I find their business
model very impressive and after more due diligence, will post more.
BTW Wamex will be exhibiting at our May 18th conference in NYC.
READER: I received an e-mail from IHI this morning. They mentioned
the new stock arrangement. How do you plan to react? What does
a lo...ng term holder do?
HW: I am buying more IHI stock. A long term holder should continue
to be patient.
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