1. FOMC MARKETS
2. RISK PERCEPTION
3. CORPORATE STRATEGY
4. QUOTES
5. WEBSITES
6. QUESTIONS
MAKE HAY WHILE THE SUN SHINES
The US trade deficit ballooned to a record 26.5 billion dollars in
November and is projected to be even higher in 2000. As with Oil
above $28, it is said not to matter in this "best of all possible worlds:
strong growth with no inflation." So which comes first: DJIA 100,000
or a reality check? We continue to bet on the latter before the end
of May.
Will the January small cap effect last past January 31st? How long can Nasdaq trees grow to the sky? The Sun does not leave Aquarius until the February Full Moon on the 18th. Chinese New Year on February 5 is on the day of a Solar Eclipse (bye bye China and/or Japan?). Jupiter does not square Neptune until March 16, the day after Pluto goes SR. Does all of this mean the big boys and the smart money will be right and engineer a soft landing to DJIA 9500 in March?
Stay tuned for the best entertainment on earth, the US Stock market. Did you know that more roller coasters were built last year than in any prior decade over the last 70 years. No wonder the stock market is acting the way it does!
KEY DATES Feb 1/2, 4
DJIA:
P1 11,111, P2 11,000 P3 10,500
GOLD:
BUY
2. Valueline's 200 Market Forecast's investment advice is: "We advise keeping about half of your portfolio in stocks ranked 1 or 2 for Timeliness with the remainder in cash reserves and Treasuries. As always, investors should take into account the length of their investment horizon as well as tax considerations in making their equity allocation."
A ROSE BY ANY OTHER NAME: My mother whose portfolio is almost entirely fixed income and bonds, won't let me buy her REIT's like SSS because she find them "risky." She would prefer to own Internet stocks! BTW: She is also a quite a gambler. Fortunately, she allows one exception. I can buy her the expensive Weingarten Realty (WRI) because she likes its name.
3. Magna International (MGA), the Canadian automatic parts company announced its plans to spin a separate subsidiary to carry out new ventures in horse racing and sports gambling. Here is refreshing corporate honesty - why waste time with Internet stock ventures when you can cut to the chase with a pure gambling business.
4. "Now that you're approaching crude prices of $30 a barrel, there
is more US government interest."
Sarah Emerson Security Analysis Washington.
HW: Funny, last January I thought $20 or $25 would be high enough to
get attention. $30 eh, and no inflation? Are we going to blame the
inevitable rude awakening just on OPEC again, when the fault lies not in
our stars, but in our selves?
"Only 10 percent of the current Fortune 500 companies will survive the
next 10 years. The rest will shrivel to a fraction of their former selves,
because they won't make a successful transition to the customer-centric
Web economy."
Jacob Nielsen, Nielsen Norman Group
HW: Only 10% or 50 stocks? Is that why all the money is pouring into
the new nifty-fifty?
"I hold companies that I feel comfortable owning. I am not afraid own
what's unpopular today.
Tom McInIntyre Dessauer Global Equity Fund
HW: I agree -- bravo.
5. The Exploding Financial Bubble is one possible future and worth reading if you want to learn one key reason behind the current stock market mania.
Bankruptcydata.com is the
home for the bankruptcy professional. We are forecasting 2000 to be even
better than last year for them. FYI: 1999 was their best year since 1986
i.e., the most public companies entering Chapter 11.
HW: Yes, things are great all over. Ha!
Thegreatcrash.com "This is the
only business plan that will profit before, during and after the coming
crash-no matter when it comes."
HW: I like a business plan that covers ALL the bases.
6. READER: Dow, 100,000? That's a little steep! I was thinking 18,000
then 40,000.
HW: I was NOT being serious!
READER: You're being very snide (sneery) about Japanese housewives,
who have more time than their notoriously overworked and stressed spouses
to contemplate the intricacies of the market. As small yen investors they
aren't likely to be the big-horned bulls leading the stampede. As women,
they are more likely to believe in astrology, and more likely to tune into
your site. Pick on someone your own size-like Greenspan or Gates.
HW: Of course I am speaking in stereotypes, and one hopefully that
is changing for the better. Still
1) They are buying intanetto hai-risuku, hai-ritaan (Internet high-risk,
high-return) stocks in droves.
2) True, they are NOT leading the charge. They are the last to come
in, the biggest fools left with plenty of cash.
3) Astrology is not a question of belief regardless of gender. It is
knowledge and science, albeit a spiritual one. I also hope to market my
funds in Japan in the future and I have the greatest personal respect for
the Japanese people and their culture.
As to picking on Greenspan and Gates, I am happy to do so anytime when they do anything wrong, which is not infrequent IMHO. BTW: Did you know the REAL reason for Gates retirement was to allow time for planning his hostile takeover of the US government. :)
READER: I have found your client
list and am about to start work on them - I need to rob a bank for
all the funds I need for them!
HW: Yes, that could be a problem. Don't forget the importance
of prudent money management and disciplined trading technique. Note: we
will update our list shortly.
READER: When you say rocket even 30.00 [For DCHT] seems small these
days. Figures like 15.00 jumped into my head..... but even 30.00 seems
small!
HW: Track it with momentum indicators as their horoscope indicates
clear sailing into February. Anything is possible, especially if
the rumour about them using Linux on their servers is true. :)
READER: I agree with you on inflation. How do we take advantage, silver
calls?
HW: Previously, the best way was shorting Bonds. This quarter, we believe
the best way is to buy small cap stocks like our AFUND
Client stocks e.g. IHITF and WAMEX. Gold or Silver is second best.
READER: Good astrologer that you are, you've never addressed the
fact that the markets are behaving like a true Aquarian. I mean unpredictable
and contrary. Until Uranus leaves that sign [Aquarius], I see more
of the same continuing. Do you agree?
HW: No, I do not. It is behaving more like a spoiled child.
READER: How was your meeting with Wamex?
HW: The more I learn, the more excited I get. Using first impressions,
it seems that Wamex has both their financing and technical staff in place.
I will be reviewing their game plan i.e. business and marketing strategy.
To me, it is an obvious "no-brainer" story stock to at least 10 with a
probable run to 20 and a possible run to 60. Most important for us is our
astrological due diligence. We will post it on our web site as soon as
completed.
READER: What about your suggestion on buying Lucent now. You suggested
to buy it when they come down.
HW: I found it still much too high. If you are a technology bull, perhaps
at 47, its 52 week low, but I would not consider buying it until far closer
to its 2 year low.
READER: Other WSNW readers may want to know-what is UNDR a buy
to? You must have had one of the greatest weeks in the market of your life.
HW: It depends on why you bought it: as a trade, an investment or just
to have fun. It is logical for traders to sell circa .75 to $1.25. Revised
price targets will be posted shortly for our clients,
after due diligence is completed.
Financially we had a stellar week. I maybe happily paying more in taxes
for January than I earned in all of 1999!
READER: What is your opinion on pharmaceuticals like bmy, pfe, abt
and jnj? They seem to be good buys. Is it time or to wait?
You said MSFT going to be another Philip Morris of 2000---you still stand
on that?
HW: Astrologically, drugs sector could outperform but we are market
bearish. With the US presidential election forthcoming, I would be concerned
about holding Healthcare stocks intermediate term. As for Microsoft, it
is not a company I would buy even at 50% discount to its current market
price.
READER: ASL supposedly has a large gold reserve and a current P/E of
4. Any updated advice?
HW: I would hold until March as Gold may explode upwards by then. If
not, I would probably dump.
READER: The Lunar Eclipse seems to have lit a fire under IHI today!
Cool!
HW: Agreed.
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