1. MARKETS
2. POOPY HEAD STOCKS
3. SIGN OF THE TIMES
4. QUOTES
5. 2000 AFUND UIT
6. LETTERS
1. Is the handwriting on the wall for market bulls or will 20%+ market returns annually continue forever? Despite a 3-day reality check and strong jobs data, the bull headed market roared ahead Friday as if it wanted to go up to 12,000 to 15,000. Naturally we issued WSNW ALERT 40A.
January's eclipse may time a "surprise" Fed move that could bring the markets down or perhaps we will have to wait as long as the February and March FOMC meetings. While the first quarter is traditionally positive, with Alan raising rates, I think not. We will buy undervalued stocks and selected small caps (especially client stocks). Circa late February with interest rates still higher, we will begin to accumulate bonds and other fixed income instruments. Our market strategy is to always strive to outperform regardless of WHAT is happening in the markets based on our astro-probabilistic portfolio balancing of the chosen risk/reward.
Jan 4 President Bill Clinton confirmed he will renominate Alan Greenspan to a fourth term as Federal Reserve chairman, saying Greenspan's "wise and steady leadership" has benefited the US economy. I am not so sure. Personally and professionally I have not forgiven him for his LTCM bailout. We have to see if a "soft landing" can still be engineered after many years of explosive money supply growth. Look to Albania for a preview what will be coming sooner or later if Alan does not act quickly and decisively.
KEY DATES: January 11, 21
BONDS:
Down
2. As a technology analyst with my feet firmly planted on the
ground (and my head open to the sky) I find stock prices totally unacceptable
and generally prefer short trades to new investments at this time.
We have plenty of cash and will be ready to move fast. Recent fallen
stars like Baanf, Lucent and Linux are still far too pricey for my tastes.
I have finally learned how to properly value Internet or "poopy
head" stocks from our new Internet analyst Kristina Marie Hahn. Kristina
is my four year old niece and who can count but has yet to learn to tell
time. If I tell her to go to bed in 5 minutes, she responds with "can I
go in 10 minutes or 3 minutes?" without any understanding of the difference.
Like most Internet analysts today, she has acquired only a little math
sense. If she doesn't like something, she calls them "poopy head".
3. The head of Salomon Brothers' German operations plans to quit
bond analysis for the US investment bank to become a Country and Western
star. Fifty-year-old Daniel Lee, told the German business daily Handelsblatt
he had grown tired of the slog of investment banking and wanted to fulfill
his dream of becoming a professional musician in 2000. Arkansas-born
Lee said the decision had not surprised his mother, but he was quick to
answer her concerns about whether he could afford the switch from a high-flying
banking career to life on the road with his band "Texas Eagles."
"From now on my goal is capital conservation, not maximizing
profits," he explained.
HW: Good timing.
4. "The thing that's scary is that so many people are bullish.
`If you believe in the theory of contrary opinion, then run to the hills.''
Yale Hirsch, editor the Stock Trader's Almanac.
HW: I am already there!
"The only bears left are in the Bronx Zoo," said Bill Meehan, chief
market analyst Cantor Fitzgerald.
HW: A nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there!
"If people start selling stocks, the market will go down as fast
as it went up" Michael Lyons Morgan Stanley Dean Witter trader
HW: According to the law of gravity, it could go down MUCH faster.
5. WSNW subscribers may view the composition of the AFUND 2000 UIT, currently up 4.5%.
6. READER: GO DCHT.
HW: YES, 1500%+ return is not too shabby and we believe this is
a long term winner, not a "poopy head" Internet play.
READER: Henry, you are obviously an excellent astrologer. However,
I don't understand why you don't look at Greenspan's chart for Tuesday
and yr. 2000 AND then you'd see what he going to do regarding rates. Sorry
to say but astrology is my only belief and that's why companies with good
earnings announcements or great news often don't have their share price
jump up and others with a bit of negativity will make share holders smile.
It's all in the chart. As I said before, Nasdaq and NYSE are separate entities.
HW: This past year we were almost perfect on interest rate calls.
As to Nasdaq and NYSE being separate entities, yes and no. They have
different players, but by the end of next year, many Internet/Nasdaq crazies
may be history.
READER: I fully agree with you that a major correction is due for
'DJIA.' I forecast DJIA in the range of 8100 in Q1 2000. However I am very
bullish on Nasdaq INDEX and also few Telecom/IT related stocks. One can
safely go short on the DJIA at these levels and hedge one's losses, if
any -- by being long on the Nasdaq and a few telecom stocks viz. LUCENT
etc. I expect Nasdaq to be in the range of 5100 in Q1
2000 and DJIA around 8100 the same time. I feel that the investors will
liquidate their holdings in core sector DJIA Stocks and move to Nasdaq
Stocks - IT and Telecom.
HW: That is definitely one possible scenario, however, I would prefer
to be long in the small cap sector and value stocks rather than Nasdaq
as my hedge. There is no reason to Nasdaq and 10,000 is as likely
as 5,000, and so too is 2000. This is not a risk I would take for my myself
or my clients.
[Note: This letter was written in late December just after we downgraded
Lucent.]
READER: I have gone over your 2000 Market Forecast and surprised
not to find May 4-5 not one of key dates.
HW: It is in our second key date phase of 2000 and May is the most
important month in 2000 from an astrological view.
READER: I own some gold companies in South Africa which are ADRS
on the Nasdaq. Do you feel that I should switch to other countries given
that you have a negative outlook on South Africa but a positive on gold.
In particular, I own Durban Deep (drooy:Nasdaq)
HW: Yes, from a risk/reward view that is our recommendation.
READER: To hedge your losses if any, you advised that you rather
be long on 'small cap and value sector stocks' at DJIA/Nasdaq. What
are your three best - Small Cap Sector Stocks at DJIA/Nasdaq? Also the
same for -- 'Value Sector Stocks' at DJIA/Nasdaq.
1. We like three AFUND client companies IHITF, V.URL AND DCHT
which returned us 0, 70 AND 700% over the last few months and as a group,
we believe will outperform as well in 2000.
2. SSS, SRV AND LDW.
READER: Do you expect disasters or miracles with technology companies
which are listed on Nasdaq?
HW: BOTH: See Lucent (LU) and DCH Technologies (DCHT).
READER: You have to admit that this time stoxcom went up on large
volume compared with last time - it did not look as if it was going to
fail. Have I missed something or could you tell WSNW readers when stoxcom
preparing to list on the Nasdaq- didn't know it was-goodness a Nasdaq listing
could mean any price when you consider the new listings and their prices.
HW: We expect a Toronto listing by April/May and Nasdaq is possible
at the same time or shortly thereafter.
READER: On 12/27/1999 I was viewing BLOOMBERG TV's interview of Henry
Weingarten. I was very interested in what he had to say and am considering
investing in the fund. I also do some trading on my own and am interested
in the stock that Henry refereed to that potentially could rise between
five and ten times next year. However I did not get the symbol of
that stock. Can you tell me what it is?
HW: I believe you are referring either to DCHT or IHITF.
READER: We are new to your service and do not understand the above
ALERT message you sent out this morning. Exactly what does "going
short DJIA 11500" mean to a non professional investor like us? Also
what is MOC, SPH 1485 mean and how do we do it?
HW: It depends on what instruments you trade - Indexes, Futures,
Options, Stocks? Please read About
WSNW Alerts.
READER: Consumer confidence is at it's highest level since October
1968, and is the second highest reading on record? If I remember my market
history correctly, October 1968 would have been a pretty good time to short
stocks, particularly small stocks!
HW: We prefer to short the tech Big Boys. PT Barnum was not
off the mark.
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