1. SEPTEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1/A VERY BUSY WEEK AHEAD
9/21 10.30 Housing Starts & 2.15 FOMC
9/22 FALL EQUINOX
9/23 FULL MOON & 10 AM EXISTING HOME SALES
9/24 NEW MARKET MARKER & 8.30 Durable Goods
This could lead to a highly volatile trading week. A recent
Reuters poll of institutional investors and strategists found
FASHION & INVESTING PART II: New York Fashion Week offers glimpse of spring wardrobe
MUTED COLORS
“Black is
no longer the dominant color on the runways of the New York Fashion Week…White
is the new black…while knock-out orange, fuchsia and cobalt are the season's
feel-good surprise.”
Market Translation: It WILL be
different this time….Remember White is the color of mourning in China.…Think
agricultural products, South America & Rare Earths.
FLORAL FANTASIES
Market Translation: Let us hope
this augurs Agri-business will be bullish and not a revisit of Tulip Mania!
SPECIAL EFFECTS
Market Translation: Technology
Stocks will out perform.
KNEE-LENGTH SKIRTS
“Donna
Karan, Marc Jacobs, Carolina Herrera, Vera Wang were among those who featured
the new-again longer lengths. Fashion pros have declared that longer hemlines
are the hot new thing. Some designer dress even reached the ankle, clinging to
the models' long-limbed bodies like fancy nightgowns. Meanwhile, designer
Prabal Gurung dropped his hemlines below the knee and, on o
Market Translation:
We all know about the supposed relationship between longer hemlines and stock
markets bearishness. We believe this will correspond to the reality of the
so-called doubled dip recession. What is key to note here is that a few
designers e.g. Gurung are BELOW the knee and hence some stocks will do far
worse than “muddle through”!
TRADERS:
PRE & POST FOMC VOLATILITY THEN WE WATCH SEPTEMBER 24.
INVESTORS:
My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value
pricing.
Invest
only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until
2011.
Soberly
prepare for the reality of a weak
FAIR
VALUE: DOW 9750 SPX 988 NAS 1985
LONG/SHORT
PORTFOLIO: L2/S3 or L3/S2?
KEY DATES: September 21, 22, 23, 24
DJIA:
10600 PIVOT S1 10500 S2 10450 S3 10300
SPX: 1130 PIVOT 1145 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: 2300 PIVOT
DEC GOLD 1280 PIVOT S1 1268 R2 1250 R3 1240 R1 1289 R2 1300 R3 1318
DEC SILVER: S1 20.50
S2 20 S3 19.80 21 OR 21.25
RESISTANCE?
NOV OIL: 74.50 PIVOT S1 72 S2 71 S3 70
US$ 80.50 SUPPORT 83 RESISTANCE
Market Marker Sentiment changes September 24.
2009 CLOSE:
DJIA 10428
SPX 1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:
DJIA 8776,
SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:
DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 &
NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:
DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 &
NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:
DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ
2205
DJIA:
6 ~ FV 1 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer
5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE:
125
THINK
TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE
RISK.
2. With a few possible exceptions, we advise waiting rather than
investing until after September 24th to learn what the new Market
Marker will be.
3. A
Silver Bull Recommends Six Silver Stocks
Also research the two Silver companies at our September 23 Investment
Conference.
4. "My money is on
it's real. The absence of bad news gave
us this rally. We certainly saw upside for the market. We think it's real. We
don't think it's going to be gangbusters but it's real."
Milton Ezrati, market strategist,
Lord Abbett
HW: To me the fact that the news is
not awful is hardly “good” news.
“Uncertainties over the global
economic recovery as well as the financial market persist. Gold is where money
should be at this juncture. Now that bullion breached the record again, it will
probably continue rising.”
Hwang Il Doo, senior trader,
Korea Exchange Bank Futures
HW: The old “trend is your
friend” argument.
“We
need a catalyst to get over levels that we haven’t seen since early April. The
M&A front will be very relevant, and could be a negative if that momentum
doesn’t continue.”
Alan
Lancz, director of research, LanczGlobal.com
HW:
That requires (1) a belief in NO double dip and (2) not worst than expected
October earnings.
U.S.
Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms
10
ETFs Every Advisor Should Know (But Most Have Never Heard Of)
6. READER: Is this a good
time to buy real estate?
HW: Given the extremely low
cost of a mortgage, depending on where (location, location, location) and most
especially what price (how much UNDER the cost of new construction) and if your
time horizon is intermediate-long term, the answer is generally yes now until
2011/2012.
READER: The last Jupiter/Uranus Conjunction on July 8th was in ARIES.
And, it marked a strong reversal in the Stock Markets where they went UP.
The next Jupiter/Uranus Conjunction on Sept. 18th is in Pisces.
Yet, we have the full Moon reactivating the Cardinal Climax planets on
Sept. 23rd. So, I have 2 questions. Since the 2nd Conjunction is in
Pisces -- is it less likely to move the market UP? And, even if it does
move the market UP a few days...do you think that the positives of the Jupiter
Uranus Conjunction will not stop the market from moving down -- right after
when the full MOON o
HW: Good question!
READER: Do you think this rise in gold will continue
or is their a correction on the horizon?
HW: I
don’t know. Astrologically H2 2010 is
far more positive for gold than negative.
Ditto: Sentiment. Fundamentally,
we consider gold over valued (above $1052).
Bottom line: Like many long term gold lovers,
I would prefer to buy physical gold cheaper. However, as long as Ben is Fed
Chairman, it is scary to short gold, is it not? :)
READER: Since your resistance level of Gold @
1268.00 pto is taken out, what is the next resistance as we have no
"charts" to for technical analysis?
HW: 1289.
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