REIT FORECASTS

6/15/2008
BUSINESS & BANQUETS
We always enjoy NAREIT annual Investor Forum at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.   While the tone was serious and subdued, [“We are NOT at the bottom”], it is has been our feeling that our previous weighting of REITS – SECTOR AVOID will be upgraded by or before 2010 to Slow Accumulate Underweight.

Our top three current picks were all specialty REITS:

1. Entertainment Properties Trust (EPR) 12% Yield.  The Theatre industry is very healthy and a majority of this trust’s revenues. Remember in the Great Recession both gold and entertainment were outstanding investments. - So too in the Great Recession?
2. Digital Realty (DLR) 3% Yield. There will be continued strong demand for data center facilities
3. Plum Creek Timber (PCL) 4% Yield. Future upside includes biomass (alternate energy demand) and some oil/gas potential. as well as rural timberland real estate sales.

Three other yield REITS worth watching are BioMed Realty (BMR) (12% Yield), Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT) 20% Yield  and Lexington Realty Trust LXP (16%).

Warning: Remember US Real Estate has yet tot bottom and has further to drop!

A good starting point for research is The Reit Analyst and its links.
Another is the NAREIT or the National Association of Real Estate Trusts.

Blue indicates price target has been met and that we recommended buying in some portfolios.
Red indicates we have changed price target - up or down - after quarterly forecast.

On Watch for possible future (re) inclusion is: ACC, SKT, HCP, HT, PSA, EQR  AVB, AIV,  BRE, BXP, FPO, HME,  MHI, NNN, OFC, NLY, SPG  SLG,

FOREIGN REITS:
CAR.UN.T, FVI.DE, BXTN (FTSE), LGY (TSX), JRF (JSE),

SUGGESTED USE 
Ideally, one buys at a value price or better, stocks with a 1 or 2 rating.  In our view, one should NOT buy price alone.  For example, just because a stock is fairly valued, if it had a 4 or 5 rating, it is best to avoid or under-weight.  However, if a stock were well below our value price and it has a 3 or better rating, it could be a profitable trade or good investment.  Remember, unless we are your personal money manager, ALWAYS use our ratings IN COMBINATION with your own research or those of your financial advisor or broker.
 

9/02 Is It Time to REIT Rewards?

6/10 Additionally, we may once again become interested in REITS. We enjoyed REIT Week 08 at the Waldorf Astoria this past week.  Note commercial or shopping malls, which we feel are headed south, nor hotel REITS, but mostly special situations such as   Lexington Realty Trust (9% Yield) and HCP.(5% Yield) 

REIT’s can also be used as sector plays e.g. Entertainment Properties Trust (EPR) for Entertainment, Digital Realty Trust (DLR) for Computers &, Technology, BioMed Realty Trust (BMR) for Biotech & Health Care., American Campus Communities (ACC)  for Education. Education Realty Trust (EDR).  We will be updating our REIT post sometime later this when we believe it is time to buy and the risk to principal is not as great as currently especially for commercial, Hotel and Shopping Malls..