INVESTING AND TRADING
THE 2004 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
As the smart money knows, the November elections are much more
than whether HALBURTON (HAL) will out perform HEINZ (HNZ) and WENDY’S
(WEN) (Edwards' restaurant pick).
First there are companies and sectors that are likely to benefit
more from a Kerry or Bush victory. Some examples follow:
BUSH WIN: + Luxury retailers, prisons, automotive,
managed care and pharmaceuticals, gold and the entire
military-petroleum complex
KERRY WIN: + Education, life insurance, stem cells, clean
energy and US bonds (short term).
Example portfolios:
BUSH : Barrick Gold (ABX), Goodrich (GR), Pfeizer
(PFE), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Tiffany (TIF).
KERRY: American Intl Group (AIG), Aastrom Biosci (ASTM), Capstone
Turbine (CPST), Heinz (HNZ) and ITT EDUCATION (ESI).
Then there is the “brand” thing: For example seafood restaurants
may do better than Tex-Mex should Bush lose. A recent survey showed that
Bush supporters associated him with positive, stable, mainstay brands
(Bud Light, Ford), while associating Kerry with elite, superficial brands
(Starbucks, BMW). Conversely, Kerry supporters associated him with hip,
high-quality brands (Heineken, Apple), while associating Bush with outdated,
"down- market" brands (Kmart, McDonald's). Will this translate into market
action? Time will tell.
Finally, currency-wise, should GWB be re-elected, the US Dollar
is likely to remain weak and could be subject to a serious fall,
{Buy Gold}, while if John Kerry becomes president, over time
a stronger US dollar is possible.
AFUND INVESTOR POST ELECTION ADVICE:
SHOULD BUSH WIN: SELL ANY RALLY AND THE US DOLLAR; BUY GOLD
AND CANADA.
SHOULD KERRY WIN: ACCUMULATE ON ANY WEAKNESS; BUY CANADA.
Regardless of who wins, it should continue to be a sideways market
intermediate term.
Therefore, while macro economic views are important, more important
will be the quality of individual companies and their individual prospects
for the most successful stock investing in 2005.
Below we have put together web links to astrological forecasts
as well as the stock market implications of the November 2, 2004
US Presidential Election. This will be a continually updated
work in progress.
PRE-NOVEMBER 2004 ELECTION
Market Strategies
What the Election
Means for Investors
Election
Likely Won't Affect Portfolios
Ahead
of the Curve: Hail to the Chief, No Matter Who He Is
Where
Politics and Portfolios Meet
How
will the US Presidential Elections Impact the Dollar?
The
Election Season Is Usually Good for Stocks
Stocks that
swing with Bush or Kerry
Guerrilla Investing: Counting on common causes
Presidential
Politics And Your Portfolio
Election Impact
On Currencies
Which
stocks respond best to Dem, GOP president?
Election
Bull Market: Why do stocks rise during presidential election
years?
CBS
MARKETWATCH- ELECTION 2004
ASTROLOGICAL FORECASTS
FOR THE 2004 ELECTION
Astrology and the
U.S. Elections Various articles on the US presidential election.
Stars
shine on Kerry: astrologers
Who
will be the next President of USA?
The Astrological
Chart of George W. Bush
The Astrological
Chart of John Kerry
Starlight News
Various articles on US political astrology.
BETTING ON THE
2004 ELECTION
IEM:
IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS
Free Bets from UK Bookmakers
Odds
comparison from 17 UK Bookmakers
OTHER RESOURCES
ABOUT THE 2004 ELECTION
ELECTION
2004 WEB SITES
White House 2004 PollingReport.com offers
a compilation of polling results from a variety of polling organizations
on the 2004 presidential and congressional elections.
2004
Presidential Race Washington Post election coverage
U.S. Elections
Bloomberg election coverage
ELECTION 2004 Time Magazine's coverage of the candidates,
issues etc.
POST-NOVEMBER 2004
Stock Market Strategy
TBA
TO BE CONTINUED
© Henry Weingarten
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