Foreign investors may invest and trade India through Country Funds (IFN,
IGF, JFI), or individual stocks with ADRS on the NYSE such as ICICI (IC)
or Nasdaq listed companies such as Infosys Tech (INFY) and SATYAM INFOWAY
(SIFY). To track the Indices and Prices of shares, visit Bombay
Stock Exchange (BSE) and National
Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
For December 2000, we feel the market will be range bound. No clear trend is predictable as of date. It will oscillate between 3850 and 4200 levels. Both these levels are crucial for a trend. We do not recommend any additional shares.
Our recommended stocks are talking !
MTNL has moved from around Rs. 110 to Rs. 170. Up 54 %.
IBP has moved from around Rs. 126 to Rs. 162. Up 28 %.
ITC BHADRA has raced from Rs. 42 to Rs. 62. Up 47 %.
The above stocks have bucked the bearish trend over the past eight weeks.
We continue to support HIND LEVER, NALCO and ONGC. We are very bullish on ONGC at these levels of around Rs. 120. This is a long term bet and investors who wish to reap mega gains ( 100 % and above) should enter at these levels and pick up ONGC.
As predicted the BSE SENSEX touched 3600 levels in Oct’2K. It touched a low of 3491 level on an intra day basis. SENSEX did not close below the 3600 level for three consecutive days. Only for a day in Oct’2K it closed below the 3600 level. We recommend some buying again at 3600 Level. We feel the markets will be listless and dull. Range bound – 3600 to 3850 Levels for November 2000.
The BSE SENSEX should not close below 3600 levels for three consecutive days. If this happens, the markets will be in a firm bear grip for a couple of months i.e. till end Dec’2K. We can witness levels of 3400 or even 3250, as bear hammering will be relentless. Info. Tech. and Media Stocks will be hammered.
We fancy the following two additional stocks but investors to keep an eye on 3600 levels. If this level is breached then balance quantity should be bought at lower levels as indicated above. Some entry level buying is logical at around 3600 levels :
i) HINDUSTAN LEVER LTD. At around Rs. 165 -170 per share, this looks a good medium term bet. The Share is Rs. 1 paid up. Anglo-Dutch Giant UNILEVER has a majority stake in this company. Blue Chip near its 52 week low. Good pick for a medium/long term investor.
ii) ITC BHADRACHALAM LTD. This is a turnaround story.
A Paper and Paperboard Major in India. Around Rs. 40 - 45 per Rs.
10 paid up share, this looks a plum pick.
We expect both these Stocks to appreciate by 40-50% by End Q1 2001.
We continue to be bearish on the Indian Bourses. A very crucial support for BSE SENSEX at 3850 levels. This should not be breached. We feel this level will be breached in the next four/five weeks. We may see a level of BSE SENSEX at 3600 level.
At around this SENSEX Level, we advise Investors to pick up :
- A Telecom PSU "Mahanagar Telephones Nigam Ltd" i.e. MTNL. This PSU Giant is providing Basic Telephone Services in the two biggest metros of India - New Delhi and Bombay. At around Rs. 100 per Rs. 10 paid up Share, it is good pick for Long Term Investors.
- We still stick to our old favourites:
Investors are advised to hold on to these Stocks. New Investors are advised to pick up these four stocks in addition to MTNL as above.
We are bullish on the above five stocks for the next six months. Fresh Investors to keep a look at the BSE SENSEX. If the SENSEX breaches 3850 Level, then we advise to wait and make investments at levels close to 3600 Levels.
Indian Stock Market Pundits forecast a level of 3850 and not below. With due respect to their age and experience - we advise some buying at 3850 Levels and balance at 3600 Levels !
Money at the Indian Bourses can only be made at the PSU Stocks in the near future. We still hold this view and continue to back it. Time will tell the difference !
We forecasted months in advance, that Govt. of India will even sell
and privatize "AIR INDIA" - National Overseas Carrier. Reason - Acute Fiscal
Deficit. People were laughing at us. Today they call us or send us E Mails
reg our advise on PSU Stocks. Govt. of India has finally invited
"Global Tenders" last week, for sale of their Equity to Foreign/Indian Investors in "AIR INDIA". The decision is still with AIR INDIA Board - they might sell complete Govt. Holding to a Private Investor and hand over the Management Control. People again here in India are making comments that Govt. of India will only partially offload their Equity in AIR INDIA. We are making a bold statement here:
"GOVT. WILL FULLY OFFLOAD ITS EQUITY IN AIR INDIA TO A STRATEGIC INVESTOR AND PRIVATIZE THE NATIONAL CARRIER."
"We feel the Indian Stock Markets will be range bound. BSE SENSEX will be in the 4200 to 4500 levels. We expect the Indian Rupee to depreciate further vis a vis the US Dollar. We still back our old favourites :
DAEWOO MOTORS INDIA.
Investors to be cautious of 4200 level of BSE SENSEX. The Charts
indicate a bearish pattern if this level is breached convincingly - BSE
SENSEX closing below this level for three consecutive days. "
PSU is a long term buy for us.
We are forecasting a 50% appreciation within the next 12 calendar months.
We are bullish on the following two old favourite scrips :
a) IBP - INDO BURMAH PETROLEUM. A PSU Oil Stock. Govt. of India has
decided to off load it's entire holding( approx. 60% ) to a strategic investor.
Open Bidding. Global. M/s. Reliance Petroleum Ltd. Bombay,will be the highest
bidder, as per our estimates. At current levels of around Rs. 114 - 120
per Rs. 10 paid up share, it looks good.
100% appreciation possible by year end 2000.
b) DAEWOO MOTOR INDIA LTD. An old favourite. At around Rs. 12 per Rs.
10 paid up share it is a good buy. We expect 100% appreciation by year
The investments recommended below should be made only after 6th June'2000, due to some planetary changes based on Indian Astrology.
1. We continue to recommend IBP, ONGC and NALCO - our old favourite Stocks under the Category of PSU Stocks. We feel these Stocks will be disinvested soon and the Govt. of India may disinvest more than a total of 26 % of their Equity to FIIs or Strategic Partners.
2. We are recommending two additional Shares for Medium/Long Term Investment :
i) BHARAT FORGE : This is India's Largest Forging Company and concentrates on Automotive Forgings. More than 25 % of its turnover will come from Exports this financial year (April 2000 to March 2001). Its 52 week high/low is - Rs. 366/71. At around Rs 180 per Rs. 10 paid up share, it is good buy.
ii) ELECROSTEEL CASTINGS : This company is India's only manufacturer
of ' Ductile Cast Iron Pipes '. Conventional Cast Iron pipes are non ductile
and hence have very percentage of breakage, while handling.
Secondly and more importantly - Manufacturing Process of Conventional Cast Iron Pipes is highly polluting. Govt. of India has already banned this manufacturing process in some industrial areas in India. These small scale units have been told to shut down completely and Govt. will
pay them some compensation. Govt. gave these units two years to install air pollution control equipments, but the management of these units never bothered. Alternatively the Govt. in some industrial areas in India have asked medium/large scale units manufacturing Cast Iron Pipes to relocate to areas outside city limits but install the Air Pollution Control Equipment as per guidelines.
Electrosteel Castings is an ISO 9002 approved company satisfying all
pollution norms and has recently expanded its capacities. Its 52 week high/low
is - Rs. 1497/318. At around Rs. 690 levels for a Rs. 10 paid up share,
it is a good buy. In this case also export sales will be about
30 % of its total turnover for the current financial year. Exports are slated to be profitable and sustainable over the next few years as in the developed world, its is very expensive to produce the Ductile Cast Iron Pipes, due to expensive mandatory installation of pollution control
equipment. Also the pollution levels are very stringent in EU and USA vis a vis India. This entails the installation of costly pollution control equipment which adds to cost of the Pipes produced in EU and USA. The competitive edge is in favour of M/s. Electrosteel Castings as
majority of its exports are to EU Counties and USA.
[4/16] May 2000 is a Chaotic Month. In the next four weeks, four planets viz Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Sun are entering in Aries in the earlier period. Also during the next four weeks, in the later part, two more planets are entering in Aries viz Mercury and Venus. This combination of six planets coming together is a very rare phenomenon. Some of the above planets will lose their power because of their being "combusted". This could lead to Political Disturbances, unexpected Natural Calamities as well as irrational behavior of global Stock Markets and Commodities markets.
Caution: be LIQUID. Repeat be LIQUID. Stay away from the Markets - Both
Stock and Commodities till end MAY 2000.
Extreme CAUTION FOR ALL INVESTORS WORLDWIDE. Slowly in the next two
weeks liquidate some of your positions and get into cash and/or buy into some gold.
GOLD historically has rallied in TURBULENT TIMES, especially in INDIA/ASIA.
2. I recommend the following as good buys in this current scenario keeping in mind the above support levels:
a) BAJAJ AUTO Ltd. - Listed at both BSE and NSE. This scrip is known as "BAJAJ AUTO"" in the market circles. This company is India's largest two wheeler manufacturer i.e. Scooters and Motorcycles put together. For Bajaj Auto the 52 weeks high and low are - Rs.650 and Rs.257 respectively. The Charts indicate a lot of consolidation has taken place at around Rs. 300 to 350 levels. In a falling market it closed on 3/31 at Rs. 384. Technically speaking "even on a 50% retracement" this scrip can rally to Rs. 450 levels or more.
b) LARSEN & TOUBRO Ltd. - Engineering and Cement Giant in India.
Known in the market circles as L&T. I think the worst is over in this
stock. It's 52 week highs and low are - Rs. 630 and Rs. 237 respectively.
This scrip has already taken support above its long term trend line. In
the falling market during the week ending 3/31, it has rallied from Rs.255
levels to close on 3/31 at Rs. 287. It is likely that some big financial
institutions - both Indian and FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors)
are accumulating L&T at these levels. Near term likely target - Rs.
NIIT (BSE and NSE). At around Indian Rs. 2200 to 2300 per Rs. 10 paid up share, this is grossly undervalued, as compared to 'INFOSYS' and 'SATYAM' at Indian Bourses.
SMITHKLINE BEECHAM PHARMACEUTICALS. It is near its 52 week low. At
around Rs.210 to Rs. 220 levels, it is a hot buy."
a) HINDUJA FINANCE (On BSE Category B1) is also available on NSE.
b) RAM INFORMATICS (On BSE Category B2).
c) VAKRANGEE SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS (On BSE Category B2)
d) DAEWOO MOTORS INDIA is available both on NSE and BSE.
I continue to strongly recommend IC at NASDAQ. At this level (US $ 42) it is a good buy. I believe it should touch US $ 60 by end Q2 2000.
I also recommend to buy into "MTNL ADR ", when it is listed on NYSE
or NASDAQ. They are planning their ADR on NYSE by March -April'2000.
[02/14] Taran Marwah "The time has come in India, which I predicted. Even AIR INDIA is up for sale. Govt. of India is all out on a disinvestment spree. They have no option as they have the big problem of a burgeoning fiscal deficit. Time to pick up, blue chip, undervalued Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) Shares. I still stick to my old favourites - Indo Burmah Peroleum (IBP) and National Aluminium Ltd. (NALCO). They will be multi baggers of 2000....
Three Indian Stocks (ADRs) listed on NASDAQ are having a dream run -
INFY, SIFY and ICICI. I am very bullish on ICICI. You can recommend this
you your clients w/o any risk!"
HW: You are correct from the viewpoint of an Indian investor, but I disagree on two counts. First there is no such things as no risk - Just ask Long Term Capital Investors! Second, while you are correct to recommend these stocks to your Indian clients, by the time they reach Nasdaq or an ADR listing, these stocks are often too high for cosmic value investors. Nonetheless, as we both know, India has now assumed its place on the global investor's map.
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