FRANCE
Our web coverage of France is courtesy of our French correspondent J-F.
Richard, Editor of BOURSE
ANTICIPATIONS. [Fax (33) 1 60 75 31 80]
Foreign investors may invest and trade France in a number of ways, through
Country Funds (FRF), WEBS (EWQ) and individual stocks with ADRS such as
AXA, FTE or LVMHY.
Frequently, these forecasts apply equally well to the S&P.500 or
CAC40.
SPECIAL ALERT March 5
A powerful rebound took its rise Thursday March 4, in particular bringing
back the CAC 40 towards 4180 points. It seems that the technical recovery
that we consider over the week of the 8 to the 12 already started. Most
probable is that this rebound continues the next week. Let us note on this
subject a strong graphic resistance around 4200 points, but it appears
completely possible to pass above. In this case of figure, the following
technical objective would be a return towards 4300/4350 points and we cannot
exclude that it is reached. A passage above 4200 points would constitute
an undeniable signal of technical purchase of short term and a many graphic
analysts would then consider an objective towards 4500/4550 points. Such
a hypothèse, taking into account our signals haussiers of the next
week, is not completely to draw aside... For as much, while remaining on
a purely graphic level, we already knew a situation absolutely identical
end January (left with the rise a triangle of uncertainty): a beautiful
signal of purchase short term was " theoretically " to lead us to 4480
points. Each one knows what it is occurred by it: after a fulgurating rise
from approximately 4% in a handle of meetings of January 27 at February
1, the market fell down like a stone while giving up -10%. It seems to
us that an identical scenario should be repeated and that the CAC 40 cannot
thus not exceed the 4350 points. This schema seems to us most coherent
with our scenario bear until end mars/début April. *********************************************************************************
In any event, we always regard the markets as being dangerous and,
in our opinion, plus the current recovery will continue to be brutal, strong
or forces, plus the unhooking which should follow would be it then as much
and even more *********************************************************************************
When can we consider possible the end of this rebound and the beginning
of the unhooking most significant that we envisage this winter? To provide
a very total indication, let us note that it is possible in an early way
Wednesday 10 or Thursday March 11 or tardily between the 15 and on March
18 in last end. Also let us specify that the meetings of March the 10 and
17 are for us meetings hinges, which are to be taken as possible bench
marks for sudden conversely of tendency. Let us note finally that the dollar
is in particular to supervise. If there should a priori remain overall
firm the next week, we estimate that it is probably its later fold which
should allow the purging from at least -15% until we wait on the CAC 40
during next weeks.
Abstracted from Bourse Anticipations #52 February 1999
MIDTERM FORECASTS - March/April: -15/25% CAC 40 ~ 3500
LONG TERM FORECASTS - September: -30/40% CAC 40 ~2800/2500
PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION
|
FEBRUARY
|
INVESTED
|
CASH
|
SHORT
|
|
BEGINNING
|
|
50
|
50
|
|
END
|
|
50
|
50
|
Always to check with your licensed financial planner or broker before acting
upon the recommendations of the Astrologers Fund, Inc or its associates.
This is just the starting point of your research. and you must carefully
investigate before you buy/or sell.