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1. SATISFIED
2. CPQ - HWP
3. MARKET SYSTEMS TIMING
4. OH CANADA
5. LETTERS
While the market COULD reach 8060 before April, we were technically satisfied on Thursday with 8014 and doubled up short positions. This is entry 2 of 6 for us. The next is planned before February 5, the day of the FOMC meeting and Venus goes SD at 4:26pm.
Key date(s) February 5 and/or 6th
DIJA S1 7540 P2 6950 - R1 8014 R 2 8060
2. With the Sun conjunct Uranus Wednesday Tech stocks (Uranus) were suddenly (Uranus) Energized (Sun) as well another "earthquake" for Japan- #1 and #2 Finance ministers resigned. We did also, but just BEFORE the new year, exiting Japan at 17,014, ALL except SNE and AJL both which have tight stops. We recently suggested to cease Yen buying for the same anticipation.
Compaq: CPQ announced great long term news with its merger with DEC. However, short term, we see it going lower. If you believe DJIA going to 10,000 before the year 2000, then buy at 26. If you believe as I do, 6500 before 8500, then don't rush even for Portfolio 2000 stocks and wait for <23 1/2.
Hewlett Packard: HWP, our MAJOR DJIA short, was downgraded by Merrill Lynch this week. Our P1 is 55. We don't plan on covering shorts until the mid-40's. The CPQ acquisition was SERIOUS bad news for HWP, much, much more than for IBM which btw, is heading to 88-90 support.
INVESTORS: Discuss with your financial advisor whether you should be holding long term AFUND MAJOR shorts such as HWP or AOL. This discussion may or may not apply to trading shorts like IBM which have only a 10% downside target.
3. From MARKET SYSTEMS Newsletter January 1998 edition:
Feb 6: Minor Turning Point
FEB 23: MAJOR TURNING POINT DATE
Feb 26: Minor Turning Point Date
March 6: Minor Turning Point Date
MARCH 10-12 HIGH ENERGY/TURNING POINT
"A sustained trend should start on the 6th lasting into the 23rd, the next major turning point date. February 23 has a cluster harmonic indicators which should generate a significant change in trend. This should be the most important date of the month and may set the stage for a sustained trend in the market"
For a free sample copy email Greg Meadors or FAX (818) 247-6310.
4. Canadian $ now at lowest level in 140 years. The Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal proposed merger is a SECOND, and perhaps LAST chance to sell ALL Canadian Financial sector stocks. We repeat THE WORST IS YET TO COME! In reference to numerous question re: buying Canadian Gold companies with major assets outside of Canada for their RRSP: Yes, if you stick to mid cap and majors with PROVEN reserves. Do you really want another Bre-X? While Gold may soon be ready to break out to 330 as shorts get squeezed, don't overweight this sector much beyond 20%.
5. Looks like you are in trouble for selling the market as mentioned in WSNW #27. Do you think it will go down significantly in short time?
HW: Yes, although it is possible we reach 8060 before 7540.
<< I checked your web site this evening. It indicates that an alert 1/29 was sent. I have to say that the mailing on 1/22 below is the last email that I have received from you all. Am I missing something(s). Thanks. >>
HW: Our decision to double up on short positions was automatically triggered when the P1 target of 8000 of our 1998 Forecast was reached. We did not send out an alert, as the risk/reward was not sufficient.
Based on some earlier forecasts I bought 500 Oxhp at 25 1/2, 500 Oracle at 23 1/8, 500 Novl at 9. Since I am not a trader but invest for longer term, should I take a loss in view of the impending market drop, or hold. Also, can you clearly identify trades vs long-term holds. >>
HW: ALL INVESTING AS WELL AS TRADING SHOULD BEGIN WITH CLEARLY DEFINED GOALS. What is the target price? When? What else is in your portfolio and is it balanced... i.e. all techs or gold and technology etc. Will anticipated future market conditions adversely affect my position? This should be done with a professional advisor. For me, these are all stocks I have in my UIT. So I recommend holding them. However, if a 20% general market drop is correct, they will drop, although I think less than average, as they are already fallen angels. The question ALWAYS that you must ask is: WOULD YOU BUY THE STOCK IN QUESTION AT TODAY'S PRICES? If yes, you hold. If not, sell or place a stop loss. To repeat, for me all 3, ORCL, NOVL and OXHP are intermediate term holds. Since your letter, ORCL has already turned profitable. So too with the others IMHO.
My intermediate lunar chart is showing Feb 23 +/- 1 day as a MAJOR turning point. The chart is showing this will be a low. Unless we see an inversion, this IS the date for a 1000 point move. Travis Jordan
HW: Any more reader guesses for the first 1000 point DIJA move?
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