"250+ DIJA DROP?"
While our last forecast - part V was in error, (although one heck of a trade), potential CRASH days are appearing with increasing frequency AND probability: Upcoming "Crash Watch days" are May 14 and May 21/22.
"6000 BEFORE 7000"
Astrologers Fund Inc. Trade alert issued 3/25 at DIJA 6950 - Enough said!
=== Interestingly, as you know, Henry Weingarten, the financial astrologer who spoke at the IRI / NYSSA Forum on Tuesday, March 11, had picked that date for the market to 'top out' and begin a decline to the 5200's. The problem is that Henry does not get as much attention as he might --- because he appears to be a brilliant market-timer and tactician --- because he combines mainstream market factoring with alternative factoring (astrology).
As it turns out, if you want to look at Tuesday, Wednesday and today as anecdotal evidence of his prediction, he is so far right on track. Henry said he was not predicting, as we possibly misstated, a 'crash', but a long correction ... one that might see some ups and downs but over-all, a downward curve on the graph which would end in July when the market bottoms out just above 5200. At these prices, that's about a 25% correction. In the past, before the program trading curbs were initiated, the market would correct about 10% every 9 months or so. We've had several years now where that has not occurred, so Henry feels we're about overdue, and the market will factor that in, skewed as it is by the market curbs (in other words, one can no longer use historical data for DJ market-timing because the market hasn't acted in a normal fashion since the program trading curbs were instituted).
If you discount Henry because of his 'astrology' connections, you might be missing the boat. Henry admits that in his factoring, astrology is maybe only 1/3rd of his calculations ... we suspect it might be less ... but whatever ... there appears to be a solid mainstream group of factors built into his overall model ... and so far, Henry, you're brazen prediction of a market top seems to have been precisely on the mark ... now it remains to be seen how the program trading curbs can skew his over-all prediction. [WSE COMMENTARY Date:97-03-13 14:22:24 EST From: email@example.com (StreetLevel)
THANK YOU, GAYLE, WELL WITH YOUR HELP AMONG OTHERS, I SHALL BECOME A HOUSEHOLD NAME? HOWEVER PLEASE NOTE WHILE ASTROLOGY IS 1/3 OF THE MARKET IT IS MORE THAN 1/3 OF THE PROFITS!
March 11 marks the beginning of a correction/crash. Are you ready? We are. Of course check with your licensed financial astrologer or broker before acting on this forecast. If right, we expect to see DIJA 5222 before DIJA 7500.
In part I, I gave the critical date of March 11 1997. My price target numbers? PI DIJA 5222, PII 4976, PIII to be released publically if PII is reached in 1997.
We are making yet another line in the sand this week. Yesterday, we recommended writing on close March 750 OEX CALLS. We are also considering buying puts this week on the broad market (short term- tight stops) and long term (wide stops). We will be hitting Microsoft again with Stop above 161. Etc. Our Tech buy side trade on a pullback: INFORMIX
From the front page Wall Street Journal story THE OUTLOOK: WORRIED FED WATCHES STOCK MARKET'S CLIMB by David Wessel front page 11/25:
"If you were Alan Greenspan, wouldn't you be worried about the soaring stock market?.....
The sort of historial data on stock prices and profits that Fed economists examine suggests the market may be overvalued as much as 20%. Yale University economist Robert Shiller says his measures put the ratio of stock prices to past earning at historic highs. 'When prices get high relative to fundamentals,' he says 'either the fundamentals go up or the prices goes down.' At best he expect the market to be stagnant for the next decade......
A rising stock market is usually reassuring. But one that rises a lot faster than economic fundamentals warant is vulnerable to a sudden decline. It isn't the rise in stock prices that worries the Fed, it's the fear that higher the market goes, the farther it will fall. The Japanese have demonstrated what happnes when a bubble burst....
Of course the market might not collapse. It isn't near the height that Japan reached in 1990. Perhaps mutual-funds investors think stocks are a smart investment, and they won't panic at a correction. Perhaps America stands at the threshold of a new golden age of low inflation, steady growth, improving productivity and rising profits.
Perhaps, The Fed isn't convinced of that, but there isn't much it will do about it"
I DON'T BELIEVE THE WRITER CHECKED THE FED HOROSCOPE WHEN HE WROTE THAT LAST LINE,
PS - We marked to private clients our line in the sand today (11/26)
Time Line: 10 -11am 11/26 Price Line: DIJA 6560+, SPX 761 + or OEX 734+
My public call to date is for: "A down November and March, January TBA"
To this, one of money manager friend writes:
YOU'RE WISHY WASHY ON THIS JANUARY OR MARCH MARKET CRASH THING. I THOUGHT LEO'S CAN STEP UP TO THE PLATE AND SWING AT FAST BALLS? C'MON, WHERE DO YOU STAND, MR. BIG CAT STELLUM?….. YOU'RE WHIMPING OUT. DO YOU BELIEVE IN YOUR ASTROLOGY INTERPRETATIONS OR NOT? I'M TELLING YA, A CRASH IS GOING TO HAPPEN. YOU WANT TO BE THE ONE KNOWN FOR NAILING IT.
Whether the forthcoming Recession in 1997/8 and resulting earnings downgrades, or forthcoming world crises such as the July 1, 1997 Hong Kong "problem", the end of the fool’s market is here….well before the millennium. However do not expect one simple crash, but a series…… not one cause but many possibilities including:
A recession causing more bad earning reports next year, Dollar dumping due to increasingly high US trade deficit, Industry Price/Earnings multiples re-evaluation lower, World crisis such as Jul 1, 1997. Hong Kong etc. An inflation scare and lower bonds, Dollar inflows into Mutual Funds falling under $10 Billion a month.
SO WHAT WILL BE, AND MORE IMPORTANT WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG PLUS WHAT OUR STOCK MARKET PRICE TARGETS?
TO BE CONTINUED J
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